Potential tariff increases from the forthcoming Trump Administration are combining with ongoing labor contention to affect activity at major container ports in the United States, which could drive import volumes higher than previously expected, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Volumes could remain higher than anticipated for the remainder of this year as retailers face another potential East Coast/Gulf Coast port strike and tariff increases proposed by President-elect Donald Trump, the report observed.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.29 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, one 20-foot container or its equivalent, in September – although numbers for the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have yet been released as final data – was down 1.3% from August but up 12.8% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported October’s volumes, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.13 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year, while forecasting November at 2.15 million TEU, up 13.6% year over year, and December at 1.99 million TEU, up 6.1%. The numbers then would bring 2024 to 25.3 million TEU, up 13.6% from 2023.
Port Tracker forecasts have not yet been revised to reflect the presidential election results but do take the potential port strike into consideration. The October forecast previously was for 2.12 million TEU, with November at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, and the total for 2024 was previously forecast at 24.9 million TEU.
As 2025 approaches, Port Tracker forecast January volume at 2.01 million TEU, up 2.5% year over year, February at 1.77 million TEU, down 9.3% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year Asian factory shutdowns, and March at 2.01 million TEU, up 4.4%.
“October’s strike lasted only three days but there’s the potential for a longer strike if a new labor contract is not reached after the contract extension runs out in mid-January,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in announcing the port volumes. “That has retailers spending extra to bring in cargo early or continue shifting it to the West Coast to avoid any potential disruptions, much like they did earlier this year. And we’re hearing that some merchants will also move up shipments to avoid the costly tariff increases expected after Donald Trump returns to the White House. Neither of these developments is good for retailers, their customers or the economy.”
An NRF study found that tariff increases proposed by Trump could drive up consumer prices by as much as $78 billion a year. The study, “Estimated Impacts of Proposed Tariffs on Imports: Apparel, Toys, Furniture, Household Appliances, Footwear and Travel Goods” examines how former President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals, a universal 10%-20% tariff on imports from all foreign countries and an additional 60%-100% tariff on imports specifically from China, would impact six consumer products categories: apparel, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said the potential for a January strike “can be seen in the continuing increases in U.S. imports from Asia, which have not fallen away as expected.” He added that worries over higher tariffs are a global concern.
“We are witnessing elections around the world where discontent is leading to inward-looking policies that threaten trade with the almost certain potential for increasing tariffs,” Hackett said. “In the United States, this is particularly true with the election of Donald Trump, but it is not much different in Europe, with the EU calling for tariffs to be applied to a growing number of products from China.”
