Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasts a 3.7% year-over-year, U.S. retail sales increase for the 2023 holiday season. The forecast for the period of November 1 through December 24 excludes the automotive category.
Key trends to watch in 2023 include, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse:
- Spreading Cheer Across Channels. Although digital shopping habits became normalized during the pandemic, this season’s shoppers want to make purchases as they prefer anytime, anywhere. Omnichannel shopping will be more the norm than ever during the 2023 holidays, with e-commerce expected to increase 6.7% and in-store sales expected to gain 2.9% versus the prior-year season.
- Tech the Halls. Electronics, gadgets and gaming could be at the top of many wish lists this year as AI, immersive experiences and digital workspaces continue to evolve the way consumers work and play. Consumers who purchased new gadgets during the pandemic may look to upgrade to the latest models, helping to drive electronics to a 6% year-over-year sales gain this season.
- Festive Feasting. The restaurant sector could see a 5.4% sales gain versus the year-earlier period, outpacing grocery growth at 3.9%, as consumers make plans to gather around tables and with loved ones for shared meals, activities and festivities outside of the home.
“With numerous choices and tightening budgets, you can anticipate shoppers to be increasingly selective and value-focused,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and chairman of Saks. “We expect the most effective holiday strategy will be to meet consumers where they are. Personalized promotions to in-store experiences will be key in doing so.”
Mastercard SpendingPulse measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment and is not adjusted for inflation.
