Retail sales showed moderate growth in June in an economy that now presents near-zero inflation for typical merchandise categories, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor released today by the National Retail Federation.
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, gained 0.47% seasonally adjusted month over month and 3.42% unadjusted year over year in June, according to Retail Monitor, which is powered by Affinity Solutions. The figures compare with increases of 1.35% month over month and 3.03% year over year in May. The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales, excluding restaurants in addition to automobiles and gasoline, advanced 0.3% month over month in June and 3.07% year over year versus increases of 1.2% month over month and 2.88% year over year in May.
Total sales grew 2.39% year over year for the first six months of the year and core sales were up 2.62% versus the 2023 period, according to the Retail monitor. The year-over-year gain for total sales was the largest since 4.24% in November 2023 and the year-over-year gain for core sales was the largest since 3.24% posted in January.
Sales results in key channels were, according to NRF:
- General merchandise stores were up 0.61% month over month seasonally adjusted and 5.79% year over year unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.62% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.26% year over year unadjusted.
- Building and garden supply stores were down 1.8% month over month, seasonally adjusted, and 3.46% year over year unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 1.02% month over month, seasonally adjusted, and 3.24% year over year unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.04% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 4.63% year over year unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 1.01% month over month, seasonally adjusted, and 4.31% year over year unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and bookstores were up 0.68% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 0.52% year over year unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.11% month over month, seasonally adjusted, but up 5.35% year over year unadjusted.
- Online and other non-store sales were up 1.78% month over month, seasonally adjusted, and 23.08% year over year unadjusted.
Unlike survey-based numbers used by the United States Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor employs anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions that do not need to be revised monthly or annually.
“Consumers are being thoughtful about their spending, prioritizing non-discretionary purchases as they continue to face high interest rates and lingering inflation,” NRF resident and CEO Matthew Shay said in announcing the numbers. “Inflation has dropped to nearly zero for goods but remains persistent with services, and solid economic fundamentals are helping consumers make ends meet. Month-over-month sales growth was moderate in June, and year-over-year gains for total retail sales were the largest we’ve seen since last fall.”
