The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor revealed retail sales grew in March after two straight months of decline, but gains remained modest as The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reported retail sales grew in March after two straight months of decline, but gains remained modest as consumers continued to worry about tariffs.
The report indicated total retail sales in the United States, excluding automobiles and gasoline, gained 0.6% seasonally adjusted month over month and 4.75% unadjusted year over year in March. The numbers compared with a February decrease of 0.22% month over month and increase of 3.38% year over year.
The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales, which excludes restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations, gained 0.4% month over month in March and 5.07% year over year compared to February’s decrease of 0.22% month over month and increase of 4.11% year over year.
Total sales advanced 4.52% year over year for the first three months of the year, and core sales increased by 4.96%.
The March results reflect consumer spending following President Donald Trump’s February announcement regarding tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico but before an April 2 announcement declaring a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S trading partners along with sweeping reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries. The Trump administration then suspended the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. However, additional tariffs on China have resulted in back-and-forth tariff escalations between China and the U.S
Even before that occurred, however, 46% of consumers responding to a survey conducted for NRF by Prosper Insights & Analytics said they were stocking up on household appliances, clothing and other items in early March, concerned such goods would become more expensive because of tariffs.
By channel, NRF stated, March sales results included:
- General merchandise stores were up 0.48% month over month seasonally adjusted and 7.62% year over year unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.01% month over month seasonally adjusted and 1.81% year over year unadjusted.
- Building and garden supply stores were down 0.81% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 0.78% year over year unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.29% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.94% year over year unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.44% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.39% year over year unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.65% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.05% year over year unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were unchanged month over month seasonally adjusted but up 6.63% year over year unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores were up 0.76% month over month seasonally adjusted and 2.37% year over year unadjusted.
- Digital products were up 0.79% month over month seasonally adjusted and 27.62% year over year unadjusted.
“Retail sales increased in March but only moderately, and the spending came before the president’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement,” noted Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation. “The pullback we’ve seen the past few months comes despite strong economic fundamentals. A major factor appears to be driven by the uncertainty caused by tariffs. March’s increase is partly the result of stocking up to get ahead of tariffs. With the economic outlook unclear and the situation fluid, consumer sentiment is weakening, and many consumers are shifting disposable income into savings.”
Unlike survey-based figures collected by the U.S. Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions that does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
