Retail spending declined in February versus January amid economic uncertainty centered on potential tariff effects, but sales continued to grow year over year, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.
In releasing the report, the National Retail Federation maintained that the overall economy as it has been performing across the United States remained strong.
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, slipped 0.22% seasonally adjusted month over month but gained 3.38% unadjusted year over year in February, according to the Retail Monitor. The February numbers compare with a decrease of 1.07% month over month and an increase of 5.44% year over year in January.
The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales, with restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations excluded, was down 0.22% month over month in February but up 4.11% year over year. January experienced a core retail sales decline of 1.27% month over month but an increase of 5.72% year over year in January.
Total sales advanced 4.41% year over year for the first two months of 2025 as core sales gained 4.91%.
The February month-over-month downturn came after President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico at the beginning of February. The White House immediately delayed Canada and Mexico tariffs by a month, then delayed them again for most goods until April 2, but the tariffs on goods from China doubled to 20%. Consumer confidence has waned with recent developments. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 64.7 in February from 71.7 in January, marking the second monthly decline after five months of gains.
By channel, NRF noted, February results were:
- General merchandise stores were down 0.42% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 6.2% year over year unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.01% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.67% year over year unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.43% month over month seasonally adjusted and 0.06% year over year unadjusted.
- Building and garden supply stores were down 1.02% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.34% year over year unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.44% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 8.33% year over year unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores were down 0.07% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 4.08% year over year unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.93% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.57% year over year unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.78% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 3.75% year over year unadjusted.
- Online and other non-store sales were up 0.46% month over month seasonally adjusted and 36.51% year over year unadjusted.
“Consumer spending dipped slightly again in February due to the combination of harsh winter weather and declining consumer confidence driven by tariffs, concerns about rising unemployment and policy uncertainty,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Unease about the probability of inflation and paying higher prices for non-discretionary goods has the value-conscious consumer spending less and saving more. But for the moment, year-over-year gains reflect an economy with strong fundamentals.”
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the United States Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
