According to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, the ports the organizations covered in the United States handled 2.03 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in September, the latest month for which final numbers have come in, down 0.2% from the same time last year but up 3.5% from August.
Although ports have yet to report October numbers, Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.92 million TEU, down 4.2% year over year, November at 1.88 million TEU, up 5.8%, an increase from the 2023 month and first year-over-year gain since June 2022. The forecast for December is for 1.85 million TEU, up 6.8% year over year.
If they prove true, the numbers would bring 2023 to 22.1 million TEU, down 13.5% from the year earlier. Imports during 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2% from 2021’s annual record of 25.8 million TEU.
The forecast for January 2024 is 1.87 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. The expectation for February, historically the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, is 1.72 million TEU, up 11.1% year over year, while that for March is 1.73 million TEU, up 6.5% year over year.
NRF is forecasting record holiday sales, with growth between 3% and 4% over last year, in line with pre-pandemic holiday growth rates. The expected total of between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion would easily top the record of $929.5 billion set last year.
“Retailers expect record-setting sales during the holiday sales season this year, and they have their shelves stocked to meet demand whether it’s in stores or at distribution centers to fulfill online orders,” NRF vp for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in announcing the port figures. “Port, railroad and delivery service labor contract issues that caused worries earlier in the year are behind us, and the supply chain is running smoothly. Shoppers should have no trouble finding what they want this year.”
Even as imports wind down for the year, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said economic conditions in the United States are better than in Europe and Asia. A decline in consumer demand brought on by recessions in both regions has left shipping companies with excess capacity on new vessels built in response to the cargo surge that has occurred over the past few years.
“U.S. consumers stand out in the global economy as they continue to benefit from job and wage growth and are still able to dip into savings accumulated during the pandemic,” Hackett said. “While U.S. consumers are doing well, a global recession in cargo trade could potentially affect the supply chain.”
