According to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, import cargo volume at major container ports in the United States will climb toward an August peak this summer.
However, potential supply chain disruptions loom even after a tentative contract agreement was reached between labor and management at U.S. West Coast ports. NRF noted that retailers are watching labor disputes at ports in western Canada and a potential Teamsters strike against United Parcel Service with concern.
The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis revised first-quarter gross domestic product growth upward to 2%, and Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted that consumer demand is stable. Consumers have continued to spend while retailers and wholesalers have reduced their inventories, he added.
“These numbers together point toward another quarter of economic growth, which should confirm that the prospect of a recession is looking less likely,” Hackett said.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.93 million 20-foot equivalent units, defined as one 20-foot container or its equivalent, in May, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 8.5% from April but down 19.3% from the month in 2022.
Ports haven’t reported June numbers yet, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.86 million TEU, down 17.5% year over year, which would bring the first half of 2023 to 10.6 million TEU, down 22% from the first half of 2022.
Global Tracker forecasts July to come in at 1.94 million TEU, down 11% year over year. It forecasts August at 2.03 million TEU, down 10.1% year over year but the first month since last October to reach 2 million TEU, then September at 1.96 million TEU, down 3.4%, October at 1.97 million TEU, down 1.8% and November at 1.88 million TEU, up 5.9% in the first year-over-year increase since June 2022.
Global Port Tracker has not yet forecast the full year, but expects the third quarter to total 5.9 million TEU, down 8.3% from last year, and the first nine months of the year to total 16.5 million TEU, down 17.6% year over year. Imports for all of 2022 were 25.5 million TEU in total, down 1.2% from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
The Vancouver and Prince Rupert port operations in western Canada aren’t included in U.S. totals and not all of their cargo comes to the United States, but the two ports handled more than 185,000 TEU in May, accounting for 9% of combined U.S./Canadian container imports at landings covered by the full Global Port Tracker report.
“We were relieved that labor and management at West Coast ports reached a tentative agreement last month but that doesn’t mean supply chain disruptions are over,” NRF vp for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in announcing the Global Tracker results. “The port strike affecting Vancouver and Prince Rupert shouldn’t have a major impact here but could affect some U.S. retailers whose merchandise comes in through Canada and could have a potential ripple effect at other ports. Meanwhile, the ability to move goods from U.S. ports to stores could be impacted if UPS and the Teamsters don’t resolve their differences before their contract expires at the end of the month. We urge all parties in both negotiations to get back to the table and continue efforts to reach a final deal without engaging in disruptive activity. Seamless supply chains are critical for retailers as we head into the peak shipping season for the winter holidays.”
