Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is likely to remain high as retailers continue to bring in cargo ahead of increasing tariffs on China and threats targeting other countries, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.14 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent units, one 20-foot container or equivalent, in December, with the Port of New York and New Jersey and the Port of Miami yet to report final numbers. The December number was down 0.9% from November but up 14.4% year over year. That would make December 2024 import volume the highest for the month on record, according to Global Port Tracker.
December brought 2024 to a total of 25.5 million TEU, up 14.8% from 2023 and the highest level since 2021’s pandemic-associated record of 25.8 million TEU.
Ports have not yet reported January figures, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.11 million TEU, up 7.8% year over year. The forecast for February, traditionally the slowest month on the calendar because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China, is 1.96 million TEU, up 0.2% year over year. The forecast for March is 2.14 million TEU, up 11.1% year over year, with April at 2.18 million TEU, up 8.2%, May at 2.19 million TEU, up 5.4%, and June at 2.13 million TEU, down 0.6%.
“Supply chains are complex,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers continue to engage in diversification efforts. Unfortunately, it takes significant time to move supply chains, even if you can find available capacity. While we support the need to address the fentanyl crisis at our borders, new tariffs on China and other countries will mean higher prices for American families. Retailers have engaged in mitigation strategies to minimize the potential impact of tariffs, including frontloading of some products, but that can lead to increased challenges because of added warehousing and related costs. We hope to resolve our outstanding border security issues as quickly as possible because there will be a significant impact on the economy if increased tariffs are maintained and expanded.”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett pointed out that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would initially have minimal port impacts because most goods from each country arrive by truck, rail or pipeline. In the long term, tariffs on goods that receive final manufacturing in Canada or Mexico but originate elsewhere could result in increasing direct maritime imports to the United States. In the meantime, port cargo could take a hit if tariffs on overseas Asian and European nations increase prices and prompt consumers to purchase less, he said.
“At this stage, the situation is fluid, and it’s too early to know if the tariffs will be implemented, removed or further delayed,” Hackett said. “As such, our view of North American imports has not changed significantly for the next six months.”
Global Port Tracker is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates and provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
