In reviewing data released today by the United States Census Bureau, the National Retail Federation noted that although retail sales fell in January compared to the previous month, year-over-year sales advanced.
The Census Bureau stated overall retail sales in January slipped 0.9% seasonally adjusted month over month and gained 4.2% unadjusted year over year. The numbers compare with increases of 0.7% month over month and 4.4% year over year in December.
January’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — decreased 0.9% seasonally adjusted month over month and increased 4% unadjusted year over year. Core sales grew 4.1% year over year on a three-month moving average, according to NRF.
Core retail sales were up 4% year over year during the 2024 holiday season and 3.6% for the full year.
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor recently reported that core retail sales slipped 1.27% seasonally adjusted month over month in January but gained 5.72% unadjusted year over year. The numbers compare with increases of 2.19% month over month and 8.41% year over year in December.
“It’s reasonable to expect some slowdown from the vigorous 2024 holiday season, so January’s numbers are not a surprise and don’t contradict the consumer spending trends we experienced,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “The slower spending reflects weaker payroll growth in January, and higher prices remain a challenge for most households. Cold weather in many parts of the country and wildfires in California were likely headwinds that disrupted demand and consumer patterns. Nonetheless, these results point to a stable economy and provide a solid start to 2025.”
