Retail sales slipped slightly in May compared to April results but were up substantially year over year, the National Retail Federation has reported.
The month-over-month decline was partially because of supply chain constraints, according to NRF.
The organization’s calculation of retail sales, which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, had May down 1.2% seasonally adjusted from April and up 17.3% unadjusted versus the COVID-19 pandemic-impacted year prior.
As for sales by retail sector, NRF reported that:
• Electronics and appliance stores slipped 3.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and gained 90.8% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores slipped 2.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and gained 64.7% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Health and personal care stores advanced 1.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and gained 25.8% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Building materials and garden supply stores slipped 5.9% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and gained 10.1% unadjusted year-over-year.
• General merchandise stores slipped 3.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and gained 9.3% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Online and other non-store slipped 0.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and gained 8.2% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Sporting goods stores slipped 0.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and gained 40.9% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Grocery and beverage stores advanced 1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and slid 0.2% unadjusted year-over-year.
• Clothing and clothing accessory stores advanced 3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and gained 198.7% unadjusted year-over-year.
“While May retail sales were down slightly, largely due to supply chain constraints, the more accurate indicator remains in the year-over-year data which, as the NRF calculates, showed growth of over 17%,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. “For the first five months of this year, retail sales are already tracking 17.6% above the same five months of 2020, giving us further confidence in our newly revised sales forecast of growth between 10.5% and 13.5% to more than $4.44 trillion for 2021. While there are downside risks related to labor shortages, supply chain bottlenecks, tax increases and over-regulation, overall, households are healthier and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend. We are confident.”
NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said, “Month-over-month comparisons and percentages of change simply don’t tell the story. We are at a highly elevated level of spending, with dollar amounts in recent months some of the highest we’ve ever seen. Long-term trends in the number of dollars spent tell much more about the continuing economic recovery than whether sales were up or down from month to month. Retail sales as calculated by NRF were the second highest on record in May, topped only by holiday spending in December. Demand has continued to be strong even as the concentrated impact from government stimulus has faded. There is still pent-up demand for retail goods and consumers are likely to remain on a growth path into the summer.”
