Imports at the nation’s major container ports are likely to remain elevated through the spring, but volume could see year-over-year drops this summer amid ongoing tariff developments, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from China in February, then increased the amount to 20% in early March. A 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico first announced in February got pushed back until early March. Then, the Trump administration put the duty on hold for a month on goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade pact signed during the president’s first administration.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said imports from all trading partners could be affected by a new fee between $1 million and $1.5 million charged each time a Chinese-built ship docks at a port in the United States, a move under consideration by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
As the tariff issue evolved, U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.22 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — a 20-foot container or its equivalent — during January, up 4.4% from December and up 13.4% year over year.
Ports have yet to report February’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.07 million TEU, up 6.1% year over year. The projected volume would make the 2025 month the busiest February in three years. February is traditionally the slowest month on the import calendar because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China. Port Tracker projects March volume at 2.14 million TEU, up 10.8% year over year; April volume at 2.13 million TEU, up 5.7% year over year; and May volume at 2.14 million TEU, up 2.8% year over year. Thereafter, the forecast for June is 2.07 million TEU, down 3.2%; and the forecast for July is 1.99 million TEU, down 13.9%, year over year.
June and July year-over-year volume declines would be the first since September 2023. July’s volume would be lowest since 1.93 million in March 2024. Although tariffs might be a factor in the year-over-year decline, retailer initiatives to bring in cargo ahead of what turned out to be a short strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports in October elevated import movement during summer 2024.
Port Tracker anticipates import volume for 2025’s first half to total 12.78 million TEU, up 5.7% from the same time last year. Imports during 2024 totaled 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023 and the highest level since 2021’s record 25.8 million TEU volume during the pandemic.
“Retailers are continuing to bring as much merchandise into the country ahead of rising tariffs as possible,” said NRF’s Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The on-again, off-again tariffs against Canada and Mexico won’t have a direct impact on port volumes because most of those goods move by truck or rail. But new tariffs on goods from China that have already doubled from 10% to 20% are a concern, as well as uncertainty over ‘reciprocal’ tariffs that could start in April. Retailers have been working on supply chain diversification, but that doesn’t happen overnight. In the meantime, tariffs are taxes on imports ultimately paid by consumers, not foreign countries, and American families will pay more as long as they are in place.”
Hackett said one consequence of the current tariff situation is that carriers likely will make more use of larger vessels and consolidate calls at major ports rather than making multiple stops at smaller ports.
“Given that a significant portion of the global container fleet has been built in China, this means that there will be further costs that will be passed on to cargo owners and ultimately the consumer,” Hackett said. “Ports accommodated the surge in import volume in the final quarter of 2024 without major issues, but this will place additional pressure on the supply chain while also harming the nation’s smaller ports.”
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
