September import cargo volume at major container ports looks to hit the two million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit mark for the second month in a row and remain there in October, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, a number that suggests retailers believe that the holiday shopping season will be solid.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.91 million TEU, defined as one 20-foot container or its equivalent, in July, the latest month with available final numbers. Volume gained 4.4% from June but slipped 12.4% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported August final numbers, but Global Port Tracker projects a two million TEU total volume for the month, down 11.4% year over year but the first month since October 2022 to reach the two million mark. September and October are also forecast at two million TEU each for a potential three-month streak. According to the report, the number would be a 1.8% year-over-year drop for September but a 0.1% year-over-year gain for October. The November forecast is for 1.96 million TEU, up 10.4% year over year, and the December forecast is for 1.94 million TEU, up 12% year over year.
All told, the numbers would bring 2023 to 22.3 million TEU, down 12.5% from 2022. Imports for all of 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2% from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021, the report stated.
Global Tracker forecasts January 2024 volume to reach 1.91 million TEU, up 5.4% year over year.
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
“These are strong numbers and a sign that retailers are optimistic about the holiday season since they don’t import merchandise unless they think they can sell it,” said NRF vp for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold, in announcing the port figures. “The holiday season is now the top priority for everyone in the retail supply chain as merchants prepare for the rush of shoppers who will soon be buying gifts for friends and family. As the holidays approach, the recent ratification of the West Coast port labor agreement between the ILWU and PMA provides supply chain stability and certainty for retailers utilizing the West Coast ports.”
A restriction on the maximum draft of ships passing through the Panama Canal imposed this summer when drought conditions resulted in lower water levels has not materialized into the threat some had feared. Many ships carrying less than capacity loads or returning empty containers have been able to comply with the restriction for the most part and those awaiting passage as of mid-August should complete their voyages without delay, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett pointed out.
“We have closely followed conditions at the Panama Canal. It now appears, however, that the situation has had little impact on the retail supply chain and is unlikely to be a problem as we head into the peak shipping season,” he maintained.
