Retail sales grew in March, according to the National Retail Federation, even as inflation and other macroeconomic and political events weighed on consumers.
With automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants excluded to focus on core retail, NRF reported that March sales were unchanged seasonally adjusted from February but up 4% unadjusted year over year. In February, those sales slipped 0.7% month over month but gained 13.2% year over year.
NRF’s numbers advanced 8.6% unadjusted year over year on a three-month moving average as of March, consistent with the organization’s forecast that 2022 retail sales would increase between 6% and 8% to total between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
As regards key retail sectors as defined by the Census Bureau, March category results were:
- General merchandise stores up 5.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and 3.9% unadjusted year-over-year.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores up 0.7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and 4.2% unadjusted year-over-year.
- Building materials and garden supply stores up 0.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and 1.8% unadjusted year-over-year.
- Health and personal care stores down 0.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 0.9% unadjusted year-over-year.
- Electronics and appliance stores up 3.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but down 9.6% unadjusted year-over-year.
- Grocery and beverage stores up 1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and 7.9% unadjusted year-over-year.
- Online and other non-store sales down 6.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 2.6% unadjusted year-over-year.
- Sporting goods stores up 3.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but down 5.7% unadjusted year-over-year.
- Clothing and clothing accessory stores up 2.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and 7.5% unadjusted year-over-year.
“March retail sales show that consumers have maintained their ability to spend in the face of record-level inflation, supply chain issues and geopolitical unrest,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said in announcing the March figures. “Consumers are adapting and shopping smarter for themselves and their families. We believe the strength of the consumer can carry the economy through this considerable economic uncertainty if policymakers implement measured policies and do not overreact to current conditions.”
NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “While prices soared in March and eroded spending power, shoppers remained resilient and sales were healthy. Consumers have the willingness to spend and their ability to do so has been supported by rapid hiring, increased wages, larger-than-usual tax refunds and the use of credit. They are largely dealing with the shock of gas prices but will be facing higher interest rates as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy in the coming months. The challenge for the Fed is to cool off demand without pushing the economy into a dramatic slowdown.”
