As inflation eased at winter’s end, retail sales slowed in March, but spending was still higher than at the same time last year, according to the National Retail Federation.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales, which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail, had March down 0.5% from February but up 4.6% unadjusted year over year. In February, sales advanced 0.5% month over month and 6.7% year over year. As of March, NRF’s sales figures were up 6% unadjusted year over year on a three-month moving average.
NRF is forecasting 2023 retail sales growth between 4% and 6% versus 2022.
By retail channel, NRF noted, March results were:
- General merchandise stores down 3% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 2.9% unadjusted year over year
- Furniture and home furnishings stores down 1.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and 1.9% unadjusted year over year
- Building materials and garden supply stores down 2.1% month over month seasonally adjusted and 4.3% unadjusted year over year
- Electronics and appliance stores down 2.1% month over month seasonally adjusted and 9.9% unadjusted year over year
- Health and personal care stores up 0.3% month over month seasonally adjusted and 7.3% unadjusted year over year
- Grocery and beverage stores down 0.1% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.6% unadjusted year over year
- Sporting goods stores up 0.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.3% unadjusted year over year
- Clothing and clothing accessory stores down 1.7% month over month seasonally adjusted and 2.2% unadjusted year over year
- Online and other non-stores up 1.9% month over month seasonally adjusted and 12.4% unadjusted year over year
“Retail sales moderated in March after posting strong gains in the first two months of the year,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said in announcing the numbers. “Continued easing of inflation and the overall strength of the job market and wages are keeping the fundamentals of the consumer economy strong and should support their ability to spend on household priorities through 2023. Retailers recognize the pressure on consumers from increased prices in services and experiences, and the impact of higher interest rates, and are prioritizing product mix, competitive pricing and convenience to help consumers stretch their budgets.”
NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz added, “March spending reversed the strong pace of core retail sales we saw earlier this year. These results reflect both slower economic activity and lower prices because of easing inflation, which means fewer dollars spent even if consumers buy the same number of goods, but there is still a lot of spending in the economy. Keep in mind that households tend to shop less during the post-holiday season. In addition, tax refunds typically contribute to spending at this time of year but are smaller this year than last. Nonetheless, we are still looking at positive sales growth moving forward in 2023.”
