Consumers continued to spend in August despite inflation as more jobs and higher wages helped ease the pressures associated with rising prices, according to the National Retail Federation.
The NRF calculation of retail sales – based on the Census Bureau figures but which excluding results from automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – had August was up 0.1% from July and up 8% unadjusted year over year. In July, sales advanced 0.5% month over month and 7.2% year over year.
On a three-month moving average basis including August, core retail sales increased 7.3% unadjusted year over year. Sales increased 7.5% year over year for the first eight months of 2022, keeping results on track with NRF’s forecast for retail revenue growth of between 6% and 8% versus 2021.
August activity by channel, as defined and tracked by the Census Bureau, included:
- Online and other non-store sales slipped 0.7% month over month seasonally adjusted but gained 12.3% unadjusted year over year.
- General merchandise stores gained 0.5% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.2% unadjusted year over year.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores slipped 1.3% month over month seasonally adjusted but gained 0.1% unadjusted year over year.
- Health and personal care stores slipped 0.6% month over month seasonally adjusted but gained 3.7% unadjusted year over year.
- Electronics and appliance stores slipped 0.1% month over month seasonally adjusted and 5.2% unadjusted year over year.
- Building materials and garden supply stores gained 1.1% month over month seasonally adjusted and 13.4% unadjusted year over year.
- Grocery and beverage stores gained 0.5% month over month seasonally adjusted and 8% unadjusted year over year.
- Sporting goods stores gained 0.5% month over month seasonally adjusted and 7.1% unadjusted year over year.
- Clothing and clothing accessory stores gained 0.4% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.7% unadjusted year over year.
“August retail sales show consumers’ resiliency to spend on household priorities despite persistent inflation and rising interest rates,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said in introducing the August numbers. “As we gear up for the holiday season, consumers are seeking value to make their dollars stretch. Retailers have been hard at work managing their supply chains and holiday inventories to provide consumers with great products, competitive prices and convenience at every opportunity. We are relieved and cautiously optimistic that the potentially devastating rail strike has been averted, and we appreciate the Biden administration’s intervention on behalf of businesses and consumers. We hope railway workers will accept the new terms of the proposed contract.”
NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz added, “Household spending remains steady even as costs continue to rise. Consumers continuing to spend more each month points to the benefits of strong job and wage growth and their use of pandemic savings to help handle persistent elevated prices. Consumers are showing their toughness, but they have limited options and cannot continue if prices do not begin to soften. This retail sales report comes amid mixed signals from the broader economy that show the headwinds against the consumer are strengthening.”
