The Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates forecasts August import cargo volume at the main container ports around the United States should reach the highest monthly reading in almost a year as retailers stock up for the winter holidays.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.83 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – during June, the more recent month with available final numbers, down 5.2% from May and down 18.7% year over year. The June contribution brought volume for the first half of 2023 to 10.5 million TEU, down 22% from the same period in 2022.
Ports haven’t reported July numbers yet, but Global Port Tracker forecasts the month at 1.91 million TEU, down 12.7% year over year. The projection for August is 2.03 million TEU, down 10.2% year over year but the first month since October 2022 to reach 2 million TEU. The September projection is for 1.97 million TEU, down 3% from the month a year earlier, with October at 1.99 million TEU, down 1%, and November at 1.92 million TEU, up 8% for the first year-over-year increase since June 2022. December looks to hit 1.92 million TEU as well, up 10.7% year over year.
As projected, the numbers would bring 2023 to 22.3 million TEU, down 12.8% from 2022. Imports for 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2% from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
In June, with fears of a strike gaining, labor and management at U.S. West Coast ports reached a tentative contract agreement. A 13-day July port strike in western Canada that affected some U.S. retailers ended with a tentative agreement; and United Parcel Service and the Teamsters agreed on a tentative contract that avoided a potential August 1 strike that would have affected the U.S. and Canada.
“Port and package-delivery labor negotiations that threatened the supply chain at the beginning of the summer have been resolved and retailers are now focused on preparing for the all-important holiday season,” said NRF’s Jonathan Gold, vice president, supply chain and customs policy. “There are always supply challenges to be faced, but holiday merchandise is flowing into the country, and we expect to see a smooth shipping season ahead of the winter holiday shopping season.”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said double-digit year-over-year decreases in cargo volume this year occurred despite increased consumer spending and U.S. employment.
“Dollar figures for international trade show imports remain in a year-over-year decline and cargo volume shows the same,” Hackett said. “The discrepancy between rising growth in sales and declining cargo volumes is happening because retailers are working their way through inventory built up over the last 12 to 18 months. Cargo growth should resume as inventories are depleted.”
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
