The holidays are looking jolly for retailers, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which expects that sales in the United States will grow by about 7.4% as compared to the 2020 holidays.
SpendingPulse measures overall retail sales across all payment types including cash and check, and research by the operation suggests that consumers will spend online at even higher rates this year, up 7.6% in the November 1 to December 24 holiday season versus the same period in 2020. In the meantime, it anticipates in-store sales, excluding automotive and gas, to gain 6.6% versus the 2020 holiday season.
Consumers will begin early holiday shopping in October again this year, SpendingPulse indicated. So extended back into October, the 75 Days of Christmas will see sales growth of 6.8%, again excluding automotive and gas, with e-commerce sales to growth of 7.5% versus the same period in 2020, SpendingPulse forecast.
Trends to watch, it stated, include:
- Potential supply chain and labor supply issues looming over the season may prompt retailers to offer omnichannel promotions early on, particularly in the electronics, apparel and department store channels.
- Technologies such as contactless and buy online, pick up in-store will remain popular with consumers and retailers who desire a quick and seamless experience.
- Pent-up savings and government stimulus money has given consumers more discretionary holiday cash and the desire to spend, with trends suggesting the luxury retail and jewelry sectors may be beneficiaries.
- The return to in-store browsing and shopping will continue but e-commerce retail sales will stay strong with year over year sales gains of 7.5% versus 2020 and 59.3% versus 2019, a record high for the channel.
“This holiday season will be defined by early shopping, bigger price tags and digital experiences,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and chairman of Saks, in announcing the forecast results. “Over the past two years, retailers have learned a lot about what shoppers want and need, bringing us into an exciting new age of retail resilience. Retailers have been preparing for this moment and will find innovative ways to deliver on what’s bound to be the biggest holiday shopping season yet.”
