Shipping facilities in the United States should be busy in September ahead of a possible labor strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
The contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance that covers East and Gulf Coast ports is set to expire September 30. The ILA has threatened to strike if a new contract is not reached by the date of expiration. NRF has renewed calls for both sides to come to an agreement before the contract expires, with NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay asserting a disruption “would significantly impact retailers, consumers and the economy.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.32 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, one 20-foot container or its equivalent, in July, the latest month with available final numbers. The figure represented a gain of 8.1% from June and 21% year over year for the highest July volume on record. Ports have yet to report August’s numbers, but Port Tracker projected the month at 2.37 million TEU, up 20.9% year over year and the highest volume since the record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022.e
The September forecast is for 2.31 million TEU, up 14% year over year, with October at 2.08 million TEU, up 1.3%, November at 1.92 million TEU, up 1.6%, and December at 1.89 million TEU, up 0.9%. If the forecasts hold true, 2024 would reach a total volume of 24.98 million TEU, up 12.3% from 2023. The first half of 2024 totaled 12.1 million TEU, up 14.8% over the 2023 period. The January 2025 forecast is for 1.96 million TEU, down 0.3% year over year.
“This is a critical time as retailers prepare for the all-important holiday season, and we need every port in the country working at full capacity,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Many retailers have brought cargo in early and shifted to alternate ports as a precaution, but it is vital that labor and management at the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports actually sit down at the negotiating table and bargain in good faith for a new contract so we can avoid a disruption of any kind when their contract expires. A strike would be another blow to the supply chain as it continues to face challenges, and to the nation’s economy at a time when inflation is finally coming down and the Fed is poised to lower interest rates.”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett added, “Import levels are being impacted by concerns about the potential East and Gulf Coast port strike. This has caused some cargo owners to bring forward shipments, bumping up June-through-September imports. In addition, some importers are weighing the decision to bring forward some goods, particularly from China, that could be impacted by rising tariffs following the election.”
Global Port Tracker is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates and provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
