According to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, import cargo volume at major container ports in the United States is climbing back from an almost three-year low in February but looks to remain well below last year’s levels through to autumn.
Ports have not yet reported April numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.73 million TEU, or 20-foot equivalent unit, down 23.4% year over year. The Port Tracker forecast for May is 1.83 million TEU, down 23.5% from last year’s 2.4 million TEU, the all-time record for the number of containers imported in a single month. The forecast for June is 1.9 million TEU, down 15.9%, for July is 2.01 million TEU, down 7.9%, for August is 2.04 million TEU, down 9.9%, and for September is 1.96 million TEU, down 3.4%.
The first half of 2023, previously forecast at 10.8 million TEU, is now forecast at 10.4 million TEU, down 22.8% from the first half of 2022. Global Port Tracker has not yet forecast the full year but expects the third quarter to total six million TEU, down 7.2% from the same time last year. And it expects the first nine months of the year to total 16.5 million TEU, down 17.8% year over year. Total imports for 2022 totaled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2% from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
Hackett Associates produces Global Port Tracker for NRF provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.62 million TEUs in March, the latest month for which final numbers are available, up 5% from February, which saw the lowest levels since May 2020, but down 30.6% year over year.
“Consumers are still spending and retail sales are expected to increase this year, but we’re not seeing the explosive demand we saw the past two years,” said NRF vp for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “Congestion at the ports has largely gone away as import levels have fallen, but other supply chain challenges remain, ranging from trucker shortages to getting empty containers back to terminals. We were pleased by recent reports of progress related to the West Coast port labor negotiations but will continue to monitor the situation closely until there is a new agreement ratified by both parties. ”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett, pointing to continued high inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and recent bank failures, noted: “With economic uncertainty continuing, the impact on trade is clear. Year-over-year import volumes have been on the decline at most ports since late last year and declining exports out of China highlight the slowdown in demand for consumer goods. Our forecast now projects a larger decline in imports in the first half of this year than we forecast last month. Our view is that imports will remain below recent levels until inflation rates and inventory surpluses are reduced.”
