A tentative labor agreement has removed the threat of strikes at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports in the United States, but docks across the country have already seen a surge in imports that is likely to continue because of the potential increases in tariffs that have been discussed by the incoming Trump administration, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.17 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – a 20-foot container or its equivalent – in November. The Ports of New York and New Jersey had not reported final data by the time the report emerged. Overall, the November numbers were down 3.2% from October but up 14.7% year over year.
Although ports have yet to post December’s numbers, Global Port Tracker projected the month’s port volume to hit 2.24 million TEU, up 19.2% year over year. The addition would bring 2024 to 25.6 million TEU, up 15.2% from 2023. Before the October port contract extension and the 2024 elections, Port Tracker forecasted November volume to be 1.91 million TEU and December volume to be 1.88 million TEU, while the total for 2024 was forecast at 24.9 million TEU.
Port Tracker is forecasting January to reach 2.16 million TEU, up 10% year over year, with February at 1.87 million TEU, down 4.5% year over year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China. The forecast for March is 2.13 million TEU, up 10.6%, year over year, with April at 2.18 million TEU, up 8%, and May at 2.2 million TEU, up 5.9%.
The deal agreed between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance, which operates ports across the United States, established a tentative six-year labor contract. Workers will remain on the job during the pact ratification process.
“The new contract brings certainty and avoids disruptions, and we hope to see it ratified as soon as possible,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in announcing the numbers. “But the agreement came at the last minute, and retailers were already bringing in spring merchandise early to ensure that they would be well-stocked to serve their customers in case of another disruption, resulting in higher imports. The surge in imports has also been driven by President-elect Trump’s plan to increase tariffs because retailers want to avoid higher costs that will eventually be paid by consumers. The long-term impact on imports remains to be seen.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett added, “Just a few days ago, the clock was ticking down toward a possible strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports, and an agreement that would avoid a shutdown appeared to be some way off. We have narrowly averted a strike, but that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been an impact. Importers had already front-loaded cargo in anticipation of delays, giving a boost to imports in December and early January.”
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.
