With a potential strike and the possibility of new tariff impositions by the United States looming, Global Port Tracker reported U.S. ports handled 2.25 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, one 20-foot container or its equivalent, in October. That figure is down 1.2% from September but up 9.3% from the 2023 total as importers push cargo landings past estimates made earlier in the year.
At the time the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates issued their October Port Tracker report, the Port of Miami had yet to report final data.
Although ports have not yet released November’s numbers, Port Tracker projected the month at 2.17 million TEU, up 14.4% year over year, with December at 2.14 million TEU, up 14.3% year over year. The forecast number would bring 2024 to 25.6 million TEU, up 14.8% from 2023. Before the October strike at East and Gulf Coast ports, and the U.S. presidential elections, Port Tracker had forecast November at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, while forecasting the total volume for 2024 at 24.9 million TEU.
The January 2025 forecast is for 2.2 million TEU, up 12% year over year, with February at 1.87 million TEU, down 4.1% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories. Then, Port Tracer anticipates March volume at 2.17 million TEU, up 12.7%, and April volume at 2.15 million TEU, up 6.6%.
With a new strike over unresolved issues left from the earlier labor action possible next month at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports and President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to increase tariffs, the nation’s major container ports are likely to see a continued surge in imports through next spring, the Port Tracker report indicated. Talks have broken down between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance, which sets the stage for a potential for a strike after the current contract extension, agreed after the three-day strike in October, expires on January 15. NRF, the International Housewares Association and a coalition of trade groups sent both parties a letter asking them to return to the bargaining table.
Meanwhile, Trump has said he plans to boost a wide range of tariffs once he takes office on January 20.
“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers and the nation’s economy. We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike. And we call on the incoming administration to use tariffs in a strategic manner rather than a broad-based approach impacting everyday consumer goods.”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said retailers are under pressure as they front load cargo to mitigate the potential disruption of a strike and higher costs spawned by tariffs.
“Prospects of reaching a quick agreement on the key sticking point of automation are not looking good,” Hackett said in reference to the port labor contract. “The window to front load goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing. Then there are issues as President-elect Trump promises to increase tariffs when he takes office. It is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement the tariffs, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then.”
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
