Import volumes at the nation’s major container ports are slipping below last year’s levels and will remain there for the rest of 2022 with inflation and related developments having an effect, the monthly Global Port Tracker report concluded.
Although ports haven’t reported August’s numbers yet, Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.17 million TEU, down 4.3% year over year. September is forecast for 2.1 million TEU, down 1.8%, October for 2.1 million TEU, down 4.8%, November for 2.04 million TEU, down 3.3%, and December for 2.01 million TEU, down 4%.
The first half of 2022 totaled 13.5 million TEU, a 5.5% increase year over year. The forecast for the back half of the year is for 12.6 million TEU, down 3.1% from the 2021 period. For the full year 2022, Port Tracker anticipates a total of 26.1 million TEU, up 1.2% from last year’s annual record of 25.8 million TEU.
Further, volume should continue to slip in January 2023, reaching 2.11 million TEU, down 2.6% from the 2022 month. The port data comes as NRF continues to forecast 2022 retail sales growth of between 6% and 8% versus 2021. Sales advanced 7.3% year over year during the first seven months of 2022.
“Consumers are still buying, but the cargo surge we saw during the past two years appears to be slowing down,” NRF vp for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in announcing the port data. “Cargo volumes are solidly above pre-pandemic levels, but the rate of growth has slowed and even slid into negative numbers compared with unusually high volumes last year. The key now is dealing with ongoing supply chain issues around the globe and with labor negotiations at West Coast ports and freight railroads. Smooth operations at the ports and on the rails is crucial as we enter the busy holiday season.”
Talks continue between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Association after a contract between them expired July 1. Meanwhile, the freight railroads and their union have continued to negotiate after the release of recommendations from the Presidential Emergency Board appointed this summer. Both dockworkers and railroad workers remain on the job, but concerns about potential disruptions remain.
“The number of vessels waiting to dock on the West Coast has been reduced to near normal,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “But with the switch of some cargo to the East Coast, congestion and pressure on the ports has shifted to the East Coast. The inland supply chain, particularly rail, continues to face difficulties that have resulted in the delay of containers leaving ports, causing terminal congestion that impacts the ability of carriers to discharge their cargo.”
