The U.S. End-Of-Year Holiday Season Forecast by market researcher Forrester predicts total holiday retail sales in 2024 to top $1 trillion, up 3.7% from the 2023 total and with digital sales gains bolstering the estimated overall growth.
Forrester defines holiday retail sales as the purchase by consumers of durable and nondurable goods consumers during November and December, exclusive of automotive and gasoline sales, as well as spending on services, such as restaurant food and beverages.
The trillion-dollar-plus figure includes in-store and digital revenue, and Forrester pointed out that online sales will represent about a quarter of the estimated total, up 10.1% from 2023.
In a blog post, Jitender Miglani, Forrester principal forecast analyst, emphasized the November/December gains will occur despite retail promotions, including sale events by major retailers, such as Amazon Prime Big Deal Days, that pulled some holiday spend into October.
Miglani said that among the favorable macroeconomic factors boosting the outlook for 2024 holiday sales is deflation across numerous durable and nondurable goods categories. In addition, affluent households are driving U.S. retail sales supported by rising asset prices, particularly in housing and stocks. Wage gains across the U.S. economy are another factor impacting retail sales, Forrester concluded. However, Miglani pointed out wage increases have not been uniform, noting that blue-collar workers, for example, have seen relatively modest gains.
