Holiday retail sales are likely to advance between 2.3% and 3.3% in 2024, according to the annual holiday retail forecast from business services firm Deloitte.
Deloitte expects e-commerce to be a key driver of overall retail sales growth during the holiday season, the company stated. It forecasts e-commerce will likely grow between 7% and 9% year-over-year during the period to between $289 billion and $294 billion.
“Although the pace of increase in holiday sales will be slower than last year, we expect that healthy growth in disposable personal income, combined with a steady labor market, will support a solid holiday sales season,” said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. “Meanwhile, inflation is both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales. While declining inflation aids consumers’ purchasing power, it also is expected to negatively impact the nominal rise in the dollar value of sales. In addition, rising credit card debt and the possibility that many consumers have exhausted their pandemic-era savings will likely weigh on sales growth this season compared to the previous one.”
Michael Jeschke, principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP, and Retail & Consumer Products leader, added, “Following a sharp rise in spending post-pandemic, this season’s retail sales are expected to moderately increase in line with trends over the past decade. Our forecast indicates that e-commerce sales will remain strong as consumers continue to take advantage of online deals to maximize their spending. While this holiday season reflects a return to trend levels of growth, retailers who focus on building loyalty and trust with consumers could be well positioned for success.”
