Retail sales in the 2025 holiday season look to increase between 2.9% and 3.4%, according to Deloitte, with value high on the list of consumer priorities.
Deloitte expects e-commerce to grow at a healthy pace of between 7% and 9% year-over-year during the 2025/26 holiday season, the company maintained, contributing to overall retail sales growth during the period. Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales to come in between $305 billion and $310.7 billion this holiday season. E-commerce sales between November 2024 and January 2025, seasonally adjusted and excluding gasoline stations, motor vehicles and parts dealers, and food services, grew 8% totaling an estimated $285 billion, Deloitte noted.
In announcing the outlook, Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader, said, “We expect this holiday season to demonstrate the resiliency of consumers as they continue to face economic uncertainty. Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power. Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses.”
