In its annual forecast for the celebratory selling season, Deloitte estimates that 2023 holiday retail sales will increase between 3.5% and 4.6% during 2023.
Overall, Deloitte’s retail and consumer products practice projects sales will hit $1.54 to $1.56 trillion in the United States during the November to January holiday timeframe. In 2022, holiday sales grew by 7.6%.
Deloitte estimates that e-commerce sales will grow between 10.3% to 12.8%, year-over-year, during the holiday season resulting in retail digital sales reaching between $278 billion and $284 billion. E-commerce sales registered between November 2022 and January 2023 – seasonally adjusted and excluding gasoline stations, motor vehicles and parts dealers, and foodservice – grew 7.9% totaling $252 billion.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, in announcing the forecast. “Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year. Our forecast also reflects a decreasing pool of pandemic-era savings, both of which will weigh on retail sales and are reflected in our lower projected growth for the season.”
Nick Handrinos, vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader, added, “Retail sales are expected to increase even as higher prices continue to create a battle for consumer spending. A sharp rise in spending on services post-pandemic shows signs of leveling off since last year, and compared to pre-pandemic levels, spending on durable goods remains high. This season e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets. Retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season.”
