October core retail sales — as defined by NRF based on the Census Bureau data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month and up 5.4% unadjusted year over year.
Core sales have advanced 3.5% year over year for the first 10 months of 2024, in line with NRF’s forecast for growth of between 2.5% and 3.5% versus 2023. NRF has predicted 2024 holiday sales during November and December also will increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the prior-year period.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” Kleinhenz stated. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor recently reported that core retail sales gained 0.83% month over month in October and 4.59% year over year versus a decrease of 0.28% month over month and an increase of 0.94% year over year in September. Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions that gives results in real time that do not need to be revised monthly or annually, NRF maintained.
