United States Census Bureau figures show retail sales increasing again in September as employment grew and inflation and interest rates fell.
The Census Bureau overall retail sales in September were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and 1.7% unadjusted year over year, the National Retail Federation reported. August sales increases were 0.1% month over month and 2.2% year over year.
Core retail sales, as defined by NRF, based on the Census Bureau data but with automobile dealer, gasoline station and restaurant revenues excluded, were up 0.7% seasonally adjusted month over month from August and 2.4% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales gained 3.3% year over year for the first nine months of the year, which is in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% from 2023, the organization pointed out. NRF is forecasting that 2024 November 1 to December 31 holiday sales also will increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the 2023 period.
The recently released CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reported that core retail sales were down 0.28% seasonally adjusted month over month in September and up 0.94% year over year after increases of 0.17% month over month and 1.93% year over year in August.
“While there have been some signs of tightening in consumer spending, September’s numbers show consumers are willing to spend where they see value,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “September sales come amid the recent trend of payroll gains and other positive economic signs. Clearly, consumers continue to carry the economy, and conditions for the retail sector remain favorable as we move into the holiday season.”
Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions to reach its retail sales conclusions, which do not need to be revised monthly or annually, rather than using survey-based numbers as collected by the Census Bureau.
