Retail sales data released today by the United States Census Bureau indicated retail sales in July gained 1% seasonally adjusted month over month from June and 2.7% unadjusted year over year.
In June, retail sales declined 0.2% month over month from May and but rose 2% year over year.
July’s core retail sales, as defined by the National Retail Federation based on the Census Bureau data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, advanced 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and 5.2% unadjusted year over year. For the first seven months of 2024, core retail sales advanced 3.4% year-over-year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% versus 2023.
In comments on the Census Bureau numbers, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted that consumers continued to increase their spending in July even as growth of the economy was moderating.
The recently released CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor report stated core retail sales grew 0.95% seasonally adjusted month over month in July from June and 1.69% year over year. In June, retail sales increased 0.3% month over month and 3.07% year over year, according to Retail Monitor.
“July’s retail sale figures mirror the strength in the economy, which continues to expand even though there are pressures on growth,” Kleinhenz said. “The midsummer boost from back to school and college spending along with special deal days offered by retailers clearly helped. Households are proceeding with measured spending and getting the benefit of falling retail prices despite still-elevated prices for services. Even with growth of the labor force cooling, consumer spending remains the backbone of the economy and is keeping the expansion on a positive path.”
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions to make its determinations and does not need to be revised monthly or annually, NRF maintained.
