Retail sales continued to press forward in May as the economy remained in expansion mode, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in an analysis of data released by the United States Census Bureau.
The Census Bureau reported overall retail sales in May were up 0.1% seasonally adjusted month over month and 2.3% unadjusted year over year. In April, retail sales decreased 0.2% month over month while increasing 2.7% year over year.
May’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census Bureau data but excluding automobile dealer, gasoline station and restaurant revenue — increased 0.3% seasonally adjusted month over month and 2.9% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales advanced 3.5% year-over-year through the first five months of 2024, Kleinhenz pointed out, in line with NRF’s forecast for retail sales growth between 2.5% and 3.5% versus 2023.
“May’s retail sales give us a snapshot of a reasonably healthy consumer even though spending growth is fluctuating somewhat,” Kleinhenz noted. “These numbers indicate that the economy continues to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, generally supporting consumers’ ability and willingness to spend. Inflation pressure has fallen, especially for retail goods, but higher prices for services continue to weigh on the minds of households.”
Separate from the reported Census Bureau retails sales, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor earlier this month maintained core retail sales were up 1.2% seasonally adjusted month over month in May and 2.88% year over year. That compared with a gain of 0.4% month over month and a decline of 0.05% year over year in April. Unlike the survey-based numbers used by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor relies on actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need monthly or annual revision.
