Data released by the United States Census Bureau revealed modest retail sales gains in June as consumer households remained pressured by economic uncertainty, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.
The Census Bureau reported overall retail sales in June were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month, but they gained 2.3% unadjusted year over year. The figures compared with increases of 0.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year in May.
June’s core retail sales as defined by NRF, based on the Census data but with automobile dealer, gasoline station and restaurant revenues excluded, gained 0.9% seasonally adjusted month over month and 1.3% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales advanced 3.2% year-over-year for the first six months of 2024, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales growth of between 2.5% and 3.5% versus the year before.
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor recently reported core June retail sales gained 0.3% seasonally adjusted month over month and 3.07% year over year. The figures compare with increases of 1.2% month over month and 2.88% year over year in May.
“The path of household spending remains difficult to read,” Kleinhenz said. “Spending has been uneven but remains in good condition notwithstanding the slower pace of payrolls, subdued consumer confidence and price deflation for retail goods. Looking ahead, we expect consumer spending trends to continue even though they will likely be tempered by softening of employment and income growth. Still-high interest rates are making purchases on credit more expensive and have discouraged new borrowing.”
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions that doesn’t need monthly or annual revision.
