Despite some expectations among market observers of a greater slowdown as anti-inflation measures taken by the United States Federal Reserve have taken hold, data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau demonstrates retail sales continued to grow in August, fueled by rising wages amid moderating price increases.
National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted that August’s core retail sales as defined by NRF, based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, advanced 0.3% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.3% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales gained 3.4% year over year for the first eight months of the year, in line with NRF’s 2024 forecast for revenue growth of between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
The recently released CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor report had core retail sales up 0.17% seasonally adjusted month over month in August and 1.93% year over year. In July, retail sales increased 0.95% month over month and 1.69% year over year. Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need monthly or annual revision.
In announcing the August sales Kleinhenz said, “These numbers show the continued resiliency of the American consumer. While sales growth decelerated from last month’s pace, there is little hint of consumer spending unraveling. Households have the underpinnings to spend as recent wage gains have outpaced inflation even though payroll growth saw a slowdown in July and August. Easing inflation is providing added spending capacity to cost-weary shoppers and the interest rate cuts expected to come from the Fed should help create a more positive environment for consumers in the future.”
