The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index slipped 5.4 points in June, falling to 93 from 98.4 in May as pessimism about business conditions weighed on sentiments.
The Present Situation Index, based on consumer assessment of current business and labor market conditions, slid 6.4 points from May to 129.1. The Expectations Index, based on consumer short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell 4.6 points to 69.
The 100 reading is the dividing line between positive and negative sentiments. The cutoff date for preliminary results in polling commissioned by The Conference Board was June 18.
The Conference Board maintained that purchasing plans for cars were steady at the highest level since December 2024, while purchasing plans for homes declined. Buying plans for most appliances were slightly up, while intentions to buy electronics goods softened. More consumers were undecided about plans to buy big-ticket items overall compared to the May reading.
In June, according to The Conference Board:
- 19% of consumers said business conditions were good, down from 21.4% in May, while 15.3% stated that business conditions were bad, up from 13.7%.
- 29.2% of consumers said jobs were plentiful, down from 31.1% in May, while 18.1% of consumers said jobs were hard to get, down slightly from 18.4%.
- 16.7% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 19.9% in May, while
- 24% expected business conditions to worsen, down from 25.4%.
- 15.4% of consumers expected more jobs to be available in six months, down from 18.6% in May, while
- 25.9% anticipated fewer jobs, down slightly from 26.2%.
- 16.3% of consumers expected their incomes to increase in six months, down from 18.6% in May, while
- 12.4% expected their income to decrease, down from 13.5%.
“Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Conference Board senior economist, global indicators. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than in May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market. The three components of the Expectations Index, business conditions, employment prospects and future income, all weakened. Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.”
Consumers’ intentions to purchase more services in the months ahead weakened versus May, with almost all services categories declining. Dining out remained tops among spending intentions in services, The Conference Board indicated, and was one of the few categories to see spending intentions rise in June, along with motor vehicle services, museum/historic sites and fitness. Vacation intentions remained unchanged overall in June. More consumers expressed an interest in travelling abroad while intentions to travel in the United States declined.
All age groups and almost all income groups shared June’s confidence retreat, including when assessed by political affiliation, with the largest decline among Republicans. The consumer outlook on stock prices continued to recover from a 16-month low in April, as 45.6% of those polled in June expected stock prices to increase over the next 12 months, up from 37.6% two months prior. In the highest proportion since October 2023, 57% of consumers expected interest rates to rise.
The Family’s Current Financial Situation sentiment remained solid even if it deteriorated slightly, The Conference Board pointed out. Yet, consumers’ expectations regarding their Family’s Future Financial Situation improved to a four-month high. Consumer expectations for a recession over the next 12 months rose slightly in June and remained above the levels seen in 2024.
Guichard added, “Consumers’ write-in responses revealed little change since May in the top issues impacting their views of the economy. Tariffs remained at the top of consumers’ minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices. Inflation and high prices were other important concerns cited by consumers in June. However, there were a few more mentions of easing inflation compared to last month. This is in line with a cooling in consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations to 6%, down from 6.4% in May and 7% in April. References to geopolitics and social unrest increased slightly from previous months but remained much lower on the list of topics affecting consumers’ views.”
