According to the 2024 U.S. Holiday Shopping Forecast from Adobe Digital Insights, e-commerce growth during the November/December core shopping season has the potential to produce an online spending record of $240.8 billion, up 8.4% from 2023, as inflationary pressures continue to ease and consumer purchasing power improves.
On the calendar, Monday will be the biggest digital sales day in Cyber Week at $13.2 billion, up 6.1% from 2023, while Black Friday will see the biggest year-over-year growth at 9.9% to $10.8 billion. Rounding out the week’s top sales leaders, Thanksgiving online sales will gain 8.7% to $6.1 billion.
Still, half of shoppers will begin shopping prior to November 1. Major retailer savings events in October will drive some of that, and Adobe forecasts that Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days will bring in $8.6 billion, up 7.2% from the 2023 occasion.
As for product categories, Adobe forecasts that furniture and home goods will see a 4.2% lift in the holidays year over year to $28.4 billion in consumer spending online. The greatest gains should go to grocery, up 8.8% to $20.8 billion, followed by electronics, up 8.5% to $55.1 billion, and cosmetics, up 7.3% to $10.3 billion year over year.
In addition, retailers will lean into social influencer/affiliate marketing, which Adobe expects will deliver performance gains and generate stronger visitor share for brands. In the changing retail marketplace, buy now pay later will continue growing, up 11.4% to $18.5 billion, and Cyber Monday should set a new BNPL spending record of $993 million, up 5.6% year over year, with a boost from mobile commerce.
Then, shipping will remain an issue, with expedited delivery set to become more popular this holiday season as consumers prioritize speed and convenience. At the same time, traffic to online retail sites from GenAI sources will see a surge this holiday season, Adobe maintained.
