The distraction of the U.S. presidential election dampened discretionary retail spending the week before and of the November 5 election, resulting in two consecutive weeks of 9% revenue declines, according to market researcher and consumer shopping behavior advisor Circana.
The early November declines marked the weakest general merchandise sales performance in the last 52 weeks and spanned almost the full list of industries tracked by Circana. Prior to the election-influenced spending disruption, discretionary general merchandise performance in October had remained consistent with recent performance, as measured by Circana.
“Now that some of the election uncertainty has passed, consumers can focus on holiday shopping, but that comes with another set of distractions,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “While pent-up demand will help to fuel some post-election rebound in the coming weeks, consumers now face the distraction of early and endless promotions that will dilute their focus and alter the pace of holiday shopping.”
Promotional activity lifted some of the distraction impact for the prestige beauty business the week ending November 9, 2024. Promotion-driven growth signals that consumers are willing to shop when presented with deals, according to Circana.
Circana’s annual Holiday Purchase Intentions study revealed consumers identified Black Friday as the time when they thought they would get the best deals this holiday shopping season. Despite the early introduction of the Black Friday deals, general merchandise unit demand during the week ending November 16, 2024, remained lackluster at 3% below last year’s results, with a 4% decline in sales revenue, Circana reported.
Circana projects some holiday shoppers this season to act on early deals for fear that the item they want won’t be available if they wait. Others will be committed to waiting as long as possible for the best deal. The unique deal and value mindset of today’s consumer poses implications for this holiday season’s outcome and how it is measured, according to Circana.
“The competition for the consumer’s attention keeps expanding,” Cohen said. “Toys now compete with beauty, tangible gifts compete with experiences, and top shopping days compete with other activities, like football, on Black Friday.
“Not only do marketers need to break through the distraction and capture consumers’ attention with the best deals, but they also need to convince them of the value they are getting, and then hold to it,” Cohen added.
