It’s November 1. Let the real holiday season begin.
Yule-themed store resets right after Labor Day, an ever-expanding array of early October sales extravaganzas by key retailers and the early-autumn rollout of gift-themed television commercials have widened the holiday promotional window.
I grew up at a time when malls were not decked out in holiday trimmings and Santalands until at least the day after Thanksgiving. I will concede, however, that November 1, with the final flickers of jack-o’-lanterns extinguished and with little distraction aside from some turkey, stuffing and cranberry sauce still to be served, rings in the full-fledged holiday shopping season.
It is helpful, actually, that the convergence of earlier and earlier holiday retail promotions each year and rapid tracking methodologies for gauging early sell-through and consumer purchase intent provide reliable insight into what to expect during the next eight weeks of shopping. Those eight weeks still will factor immensely in the final retail sales tally for the year, even if such promotions and holiday-related sales have been spread across a longer span.
Many established retail sales prognosticators began the fall by forecasting an overall holiday sales advance in the range of 2.5% to 3.5%. That’s fairly encouraging when factoring conditionally improving consumer sentiment in an uncertain and all-consuming national election cycle against a stubborn headwind of lingering cost-of-living concerns, even as some economic indicators warm.
Generally, consumers say they are enthusiastic about spending this holiday season even if they expect to continue to lean into deals and what they believe to be the “best value.” There is still work to be done by retailers and suppliers to demonstrate to shoppers the “best value” does not have to default to the lowest price. They are making progress, however, after reluctantly passing along price increases inflamed by supply chain disruptions and other economic factors.
Where does all this lead for the home and housewares business? Some categories are trending up. Some are trending down. It adds up to expectations of a fairly level or year-over-year performance for an industry trying, like most others, to figure out exactly when and what the bottom is so the business confidently can get back on a steady growth track that could last for years.
The business has experienced how powerful influences — economic, social, political and otherwise — can disrupt progress unpredictably virtually overnight in today’s routinely volatile marketplace. Despite that, signs point to the overall home and housewares business finally close to beginning its next and likely enduring ascent as 2025 comes into view.
Of course, one never can know with absolute certainty.
There is optimism the next two months could mark an indelible inflection point retailers and suppliers have long awaited. We’ll learn if the prognosticators are on the money, or at least close, with their 2.5%-3.5% holiday retail sales increase estimates; if macro and micro conditions can lead consumers confidently over the hump of any persistent personal uneasiness; and if retailers and suppliers can once again take stock without reservation in new products and new ways to contend for their shares of a marketplace ripening for renewed growth.
It all could make for a happy holiday season, no matter when it actually began.
