With the home and housewares business calendar poised to turn into the fourth quarter, a pair of bullish holiday retail sales forecasts emerged this week despite myriad challenges expected to swirl in the autumn wind.
Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasts U.S. retail holiday sales to advance by about 7.4% compared to the 2020 holidays. Deloitte, meanwhile, forecasts holiday retail sales will gain year-over between 7% and 9%.
While in-store sales have shown a strong rebound over the past several months, few should be surprised e-commerce is expected to continue market-share gains during the holidays. SpendingPulse projects e-commerce growth of 7.5% versus the 2020 period. Deloitte is even more bullish with its forecast of year-over-year e-commerce sales growth of 11% to 15%.
Optimistic growth forecasts come with some caveats, however.
The SpendingPulse report notes the looming impact of supply chain disruption and labor issues that could tighten retail inventories — particularly in-store stock levels — as the holiday season progresses. Consumers already are confronting some sparse shelves across the retail marketplace. And if they aren’t clued into leaner inventory levels that could spur earlier holiday purchases, retailers are sure to try to woo them with earlier-than-normal omnichannel promotions on select, limited-supply products, preempting a Black Friday/Cyber Monday cycle that already ramps up well before Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Deloitte, among other retail prognosticators, points out that after a shift back to experiential and service spending during the spring and summer as pandemic concerns eased, COVID-19 Delta variant concerns and cooling weather should prompt a swing back to the types of home-related purchases that soared as the pandemic mounted in 2020.
This favors retailers that are nimble and creative, operationally and promotionally, to enable consumers to fill their holiday wish lists early in the season while keeping them engaged and incentivized if stock dries up.
Retailers implemented new tactics out of necessity faster than they ever could have imagined the past year and a half. Those that have made such tactical dexterity a pillar of longer-term strategy and practice not only could win a 2021 holiday season marked by robust demand and new challenges. They also should be better prepared for whatever challenges come next.
